The Download Estimates Trend is a market insight toolset to watch for downloads trends in app stores. With Estimates, you can compare app downloads to the overall trend or get a bird's-eye view on app category growth throughout different markets.
The Download Estimates Trend is available for several countries and categories for the App Store at the moment. We are expanding this list gradually.
We use a machine-learning algorithm to calculate Downloads Trend — a normalized view of downloads for certain app store categories. You can also connect your App Store console account so you can visualize your app downloads data on the same chart and compare the overall category trend with your app growth.
Each category has its own Trend distribution, and to get the most out of the Trend we also add hand-picked Insights for several categories. We produce Insight in cooperation with our analytics team based on trends in mobile markets to help you better understand what caused changes in a category. You can catch the Insight right off the chart:
In the Market view, you have all the available categories for analysis for a macro-level overview of the store trends. For each category, we’ve also added highlighting for minimum and maximum Trend value, so you can easily get the notion of extreme points for the trend. Insights are also available on these charts. Same goes with the Country view, where we show the Trend for the available countries.
How Do Estimates Work?
There are three major notions that Estimates are built on:
- We can only predict a trend based on downloads data, so we do not show the actual downloads number;
- Trend is an indicator used for visualizing the growth, but it has little to no value as an absolute number;
- Categories trends can be compared by the trend’s movement, but the Trend numeric value isn't comparable between categories.
How are Estimates Calculated?
We genuinely built a predictive model based on several open-source datasets (like app rankings history) from app stores and our own downloads estimate calculations.
To achieve the final view of Estimates we:
- Get summarized data for top-15 apps from each category on a daily basis. The lists of top apps for each category are flexible, so we adapt our model based on rankings;
- Based on the summarized data, we use a machine-learning algorithm to identify the trend (e.g. lines on our charts) and seasonal factors;
- We transform Trend value to 1000s for better visualization of trend and changes;
- After adjustments for seasonal factors, we compare the Trend data to the Day 1 (March 1st, 2019) that is equal 1000.
How Estimates Can Help You:
- Better positioning for your releases: catching downloads trends can help you find a better category, optimise your marketing spend and plan ROI-effective launches.
- Compare your app growth against the market: catch for spikes and flaws to compare your growth towards macro-level changes.
- Be informed on the market changes: our analytics team prepares handcrafted Insights based on our research and knowledge. You can use them to identify the reasons behind significant changes in market trends.
An estimated number of daily downloads an app needs to reach the top position within a free chart. We calculate with machine learning algorithm the number of installation of each app for the category with high accuracy based on the partially known ranks data, corresponding data of installations, and the knowledge that the downloads in each category are distributed among applications according to the Pareto Law.
In addition, we use several methods to refine the results and eliminate errors. This allows our model to handle 95% of the factors on which the number of app downloads depends.
- How can I see my app data on the Index chart?
You have to add an app into your Workspace and set Sales integration.
- The Trend value for my category is zero. Why?
It might be due to recalculation — we recalculate the Trend every day and compare it to the Day 1 (March 1st, 2019) to make it more precise.
- My apps from Google Play aren’t in Estimates. Why?
Since Estimates are in Beta, we only have Estimates for Apple App Store apps. We’re working on adding Android apps as you read it.
- I can’t see my category/country in Estimates. Why?
Since Estimates are in Beta, we only have Estimates for App Store apps from several countries and categories.